EARTHQUAKE PRECURSORS LIST
Earthquake precursors explanation has been done by Dr Freund and his team in NASA Ames laboratories
EXPLANATION
Earthquake forecast is different in as much as the underlying science, though developed to a high degree of certitude, is complicated. At play is a mechanical process initiated 10-100 km below the surface of the Earth that leads to electrical, electromagnetic and other processes at the Earth's surface, in bodies of water, in the atmosphere all the way up to the ionosphere.
Working at the NASA Goddard Space and NASA Ames Research Centre, Dr. Friedemann Freund and his team determined the causal correlations between many precursors:
The following list describes the cascading effects of how the signals are generated:
1. All igneous and high-grade metamorphic rocks contain electrically inactive, dormant peroxy defects in the matrix of their constituent minerals.
2. When rocks are stressed, peroxy defects become activated, generating electrons and defect electrons, the latter known as positive holes.
3. Positive holes flow out of the stressed rock volume, spreading along stress gradients into and through the surrounding less stressed or unstressed rocks.
4. Positive holes propagate at initial speeds on the order of 100 m/s over distances of kilometres to tens of kilometres, probably even hundreds of kilometres.
5. As positive holes flow, they form electric currents generating magnetic fields.
6. If positive hole currents fluctuate, they generate electromagnetic (EM) waves, of which those in the ultralow frequency range can travel through the rock column.
7. ULF waves may occur in the form of single bursts, so-called unipolar pulses, or of wave trains that can last a few minutes to hours, sometimes days or even weeks.
8. When positive holes arrive at the ground-water interface, they oxidize H2O to H2O2, affecting groundwater chemistry.
9. When positive holes travel through the soil on their way to the surface, they oxidize organic matter generating CO and aid in the release of radon.
10. The positive holes also affect the electric field distribution across the ground-air interface, which can be assessed by tree potentials and ground potential sensors.
11. When positive holes arrive at the Earth’s surface, they will seek out topographic highs and accumulate at the ground-air interface.
12. At the ground-air interface positive holes recombine to return to the peroxy state.
13. Because the recombination is exothermal, excess energy is radiated off as IR photons, a process causally linked to the Thermal Infrared (TIR) anomalies.
14. When more positive holes arrive at the ground-air interface, electric (E) fields at the surface begin to field-ionize air molecules, producing positive airborne ions.
15. Positive airborne ions have a pronounced physiological effect and are implicated in pre-earthquake changes in animal behavior.
16. The air bubbles laden with positive airborne ions, rise to stratospheric heights.
17. The rising positive air ions polarize the ionospheric plasma, causing electrons to be pulled downward, causing measurable Total Electron Content (TEC) anomalies.
18. As the positive air ions continue to rise through the mesosphere, they organize into columnar cells, which arrive at the ionosphere at vertical speeds of 20-30 m/s, confirmed by Doppler broadening.
19. The cells of the rising ions cause a "bumpiness" of the E-field as recorded by satellites from above and by Very Low Frequency (VLF) radio scatter from below.
20. At the ground-air interface, increasing numbers of positive holes arriving from below cause corona discharges, leading to broad-band radio noise (in the 500 MHz range), the instant formation of ozone and of negative airborne ions.
STEP BY STEP
Diagram A contains on the left the boxes in the oval red circle. We do not plan to study those except that Gerassimos Papadopoulos may be interested in recording the microseismicity as part of this supportive analysis of seismological records.
Diagram A contains on the right parameters pertaining to changes in the water. We plan to deploy cation/anion sensors and fluorescence sensors in all stations that have access to ground or well water.
(1) Ionospheric anomalies are typically detectable days to weeks before major seismic events. They express themselves as increases in the Total Electron Content (TEC), best recorded at night when the effects of the solar radiation on the ionosphere are less than during the day. TEC anomalies can be recorded by GPS technology to reconstruct tomographic images of the ionosphere over seismically active regions; (ii) “over-the-horizon” FM radio wave transmission to detect changes in the morning or evening terminator times; and (iii) long-distance AM radio waves reflected off the ionosphere over the seismically active region.
(2) Thermal Infrared (TIR) anomalies express themselves as (i) radiative temperature increase of the Earth surface and (ii) radiative temperature increase at the top of the clouds, also known as Long Wavelength Infrared anomalies. TIR anomalies mark the epicentral region and become detectable days to weeks before major earthquakes. They can be detected by satellite-borne infrared imagers. Medium resolution images can be obtained from MODIS on the NASA satellites TERRA and AQUA, each providing one data point during the day and one during the night per each 24-hour period. Detection is also possible using geostationary weather satellite images, every 15-30 min, to record night time cooling curves .
(3) Anomalous CO release from the ground is currently retrievable from the MOPPIT sensor on board the NASA TERRA satellite providing daily global data.
Diagram 2 contains the green boxes. We expect to place ground potential sensors and tree potential sensors at all stations in rural areas.
Diagram 2 contains the light blue boxes. Stations with soil conductivity sensors will be placed at stations, maybe 20 out of 120, where we can install the necessary ground electrodes in a similar manner like the Chinese have been doing it for decades. The trace gas sniffers for CO emission are to be combined with the ozone sniffers and air ionization sensors shown on Diagram C. As to the radon emission, we’ll wait until we hear to what extent we may be able to revitalize the network of radon sensing stations originally set up by Sedat Inan. Don’t pay attention to the last box with CO2, H2, Hewhich require mostly lab analysis.
(4) Increase in positive and negative air ion concentrations using networks of ground stations to measure air ionization, typically 100-200 km apart.
(5) Changes in the total magnetic field intensity, x, y, z-components to be measured by ground stations typically less than 100 km apart.
(6) Emission of ultralow frequency (ULF) electromagnetic (EM) waves from the ground. Both of these unipolar pulses typically last between 100 msec and 1-2 sec. Continuous ULF wave trains last minutes to hours, and their x, y, z-components can be measured by ground stations preferentially about 50 km apart.
(7) Regional changes in radio frequency noise at different frequencies from very low to medium low (VLF-LF).
(8) Soil resistivity changes can be detected 1-2 m deep as measured by 4-point ground electrode systems, typically less than 100 km apart.
(9) Radon emanation from the soil by stations, typically less than 100 km apart.
Diagram C contains most boxes, but only a few refer to local ground station needs. The most important is the blue box for positive (and negative) air ionization, which we plan to measure at as many stations as possible. Linked to air ionization are the orange boxes for corona discharges which lead to ozone formation, TV signal perturbations and more. Ozone sniffers with be co-located with CO sniffers on Diagram B. Corona discharges lead to broad-band radio noise and, hence, TV signal perturbations. To detect those it will be enough to equip maybe 20 sensors out of 120 total network.
The yellow box for the Thermal Infrared Emission and all purple boxes refer to information to be retrieved from satellite data – except for the Chromatic Shifts, for which it will be enough to deploy a camera with fish-eye lens and sensitivity into the near-infrared at one or two locations.
Italy Earthquakes via satellites and some results. I have many other examples.
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26 OCTOBER 2016 AT 19.00 hours
26 OCTOBER 2016 AT 17.10 hours EARTHQUAKE OCCURRED
1. GROUND WATER CHEMISTRY
When positive hole charge carriers flow from rock into water, they stoichiometrically oxidize H2O to hydrogen peroxide, H2O2 [Balk et al., 2009]. In the process rocks “electrocorrode”, i.e. dissolve faster than they would other if in contact with water without influx of positive holes. The accelerated electro-corrosion releases cations such as Ca2+, Mg2+, K+ and Na+ as well as anions such as Cl–and SO4 [Grant et al., 2011; Inan et al., 2012].
It is possible, in principle, to monitor the hydrogen peroxide, H2O2, content in ground and well waters. However, H2O2 is unstable and easily decomposes into H2O plus ½ O2. By contrast the release of cations and anions entering the ground or well water are easily detected [Grant et al., 2011; Inan et al., 2012]. In fact, papers in the literature report on chemical changes of ground or well water, specifically increases in “mineral” content over the course of weeks prior to major earthquakes. These changes have been detected at distances up to 100 km and more from the epicenters of even moderate size earthquakes [Claesson et al., 2004; Pérez et al., 2008], underlining the observation that pre-earthquake stresses tend to be widely distributed and that groundwater systems respond to changing hydrodynamic conditions [Balderer, 1993].
2. AIR IONIZATION
Measurement of the increase in positive and negative air ion concentrations using networks of ground stations to measure ionization. Automatic monitoring can be done with a pair of sensors, one for + and one for – ions. The data will be affected by tidal forces and by passing thunderstorms, requiring multiple stations to eliminate environmental noise. The field-ionization of air molecules at the ground-to-air interface, driven by the accumulation of stress-activated positive hole charge carriers from below has been theoretically predicted [King and Freund, 1984], confirmed in the lab [Freund et al., 2009] and validated through field data from over 100 field stations [Bleier et al., 2009].
3. MAGNETIC FIELD
Changes in the total magnetic field intensity, x, y, z-components can be measured by ground stations. Cases have been reported where, prior to large earthquakes, the local or regional magnetic field increased or decreased relative to the field predicted by the higher orders of the reference magnetic field. These slow variations of the magnetic field measured at the Earth’s surface may be due to stress-activated electric currents deep below. In one case, the magnetic field over the northern part of Taiwan deviated over the course of 3 years from the field predicted by the Geomagnetic Reference Field http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/IAGA/vmod/igrf.html], followed by large magnetic field fluctuation lasting >50 days, which culminated in the Sep 21, 1999 magnitude 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake [Freund and Pilorz, 2012].
4. ULTRALOW FREQUENCY (ULF) ELECTROMAGNETIC WAVES
ULF unipolar pulses consist of single pulses that typically last 100-200 msec up to 10-20 sec (with post-pulse reverberations). Unipolar pulses seem to occur in seismically active regions at rates of a few per day, increasing in number as an earthquake approaches. These pulses can be triangulated [Bleier et al., 2009; Dunson and T. E. Bleier 2011].
5. VERY-‐LOW FREQUENCY RADIO WAVES
Measurement of the regional changes in radio frequency noise at different frequencies from very low to medium low (VLF-LF). Transmission perturbations obtained from crisscrossing ray paths between distant pairs of VLF transmitter and receiver stations provide triangulation of the location of a coming earthquake.
Refined model of the processes in the mesosphere and ionosphere over regions of massive air ionization at ground level.
6. ELECTRICAL GROUND POTENTIALS
Positive hole charge carriers change the electrical conductivity of the soil – a fact used in China for decades to collect information about impending earthquake activity [Chu et al., 1996; Lu et al., 2004; Qian and BiRu Zhao, 2009]. However, because positive holes were unknown, the observed changes in soil conductivity were interpreted as due to the arrival of some poorly defined HRT (Harmonic Resonant Tidal) waves [AN Zhang-Hui et al., 2011]. The important point to note is that positive holes, as they arrive at the Earth’s surface, will not only change the conductivity of the soil but also set up voltages between the surface and subsurface, i.e. ground potentials.
6. ELECTRICAL GROUND POTENTIALS
Positive hole charge carriers change the electrical conductivity of the soil – a fact used in China for decades to collect information about impending earthquake activity [Chu et al., 1996; Lu et al., 2004; Qian and BiRu Zhao, 2009]. However, because positive holes were unknown, the observed changes in soil conductivity were interpreted as due to the arrival of some poorly defined HRT (Harmonic Resonant Tidal) waves [AN Zhang-Hui et al., 2011]. The important point to note is that positive holes, as they arrive at the Earth’s surface, will not only change the conductivity of the soil but also set up voltages between the surface and subsurface, i.e. ground potentials.
7. THERMAL INFRARED (TIR) ANOMALIES
A TIR spectrometer mounted on 2D scanning table to record stress-stimulated IR emission spectra from nearby hillsides or mountain tops, co-located with geophone or seismometer will add to the data showing an electron flux from stressed rocks prior to an EQ. The situation is best illustrated by the well-studied TIR anomalies associated with the magnitude 6.3 L’Aquila earthquake, Italy, on 06 April 2009, due to normal faulting.
The epicenter was located in the valley, not far from L’Aquila as depicted in Figure 4a. Several known tectonic faults run along the valley, including the one activated during this event. Obviously the highest stress levels must have prevailed underneath the valley floor. However, as shown in Figure 4b, pre-earthquake TIR anomalies occurred along the mountain ridges alongside the L’Aquila valley. This is a clear indication that they involve positive hole charge carriers, which are predicted to flow to the topographic highs.
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26 OCTOBER 2016 19.18 HOURS